Of the myriad unintended consequences stemming from the Middle East disaster formerly known as Iraq, perhaps the most unintended has been the rising wealth and influence that Russia and Iran have enjoyed at the expense of American interests.  Of course, other oil producing countries have enjoyed heretofore unseen oil revenue, but Russia, under Putin's shrewd leadership, has especially seized upon her new-found wealth as a guide to extending Russian sway across a broad swath of Central Asia and the Near East.  There is little the Bush administration has been able to do about this, even as they attempt to extend the reaches of NATO into the Ukraine and Georgia, something that continues to cause a great deal of friction between Moscow and Washington.

While the wild imaginings of PNAC's plan for global dominion were specifically meant to prevent the rise of regional and international competitors such as Russia and Iran, the invasion of Iraq has had quite the opposite effect.  On top of this, many imagined that the invasion of Iraq and the subsequent permanent military presence, i.e. "enduring relationship," would benefit western and especially American oil interests that would enjoy preferential treatment by the US-supported Iraqi government.  Though major western oil companies await the passage of the much-anticipated Iraq Oil Law, many smaller firms, such as Hunt Oil of Texas, have already begun exploration and development activity in northern Iraq at the behest of the Kurdistan Regional Government, defying both the US State Department and the Iraqi government in Baghdad.  Considering the close connection between the Bush family and Hunt Oil, the move appeared to reinforce the conspiracy theory, even as Hunt Oil CEO, Ray Hunt, served on the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Committee.

Indeed, the cancellation of the Hussein-era Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) with Russian oil giant Lukoil this past summer left many with the feeling that that was precisely how things would play out once the oil law was passed.  Despite the apparent fact that the contract had been canceled for non-compliance by Hussein himself, Lukoil and Moscow protested this more recent move, citing that Hussein's cancellation was invalid because the non-compliance stemmed from imposed UN sanctions at the time.  Iraq's government stood firm and said that work on the prized West Qurna oil field, one of only a dozen or so oil fields known as "elephants," with reserves estimated at 11 billion bbls., would be open to bids from all comers.  Many, however, expected that the process would be fixed.

The move infuriated the Kremlin, which threatened to renege on the Paris Club agreement to forgive some $12 billion of legacy debt owed by Iraq.  Perhaps sensing that bellicose threats were not going to endear the Iraqi regime to Russian interests, Moscow backed off and recently agreed to almost full debt forgiveness, no doubt expecting such largesse to ingratiate it with Baghdad.  Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, indicated that the agreement would make a "real contribution to the restoration of the Iraqi economy," something Russians officials no doubt hoped would convey the obvious message that Russia would very much wish to partake in that restoration.

Now, the interesting relationship between Iran and Russia will surely play a part in the disposition of sought-after oil contracts.  Iran, in partnership that other rising hegemon, China, won $1.1 billion in contracts with the Iraqi government to build two power plants, which naturally raised "serious concerns" for US military officials, claiming that such constructive activity could serve as a mask for some very destructive activity.  In reality, the larger concern for American interests is the increasingly dependent and friendly relationship Tehran and Baghdad are enjoying.  As witness, Ahmedinejad's recent and "unprecedented" visit to Iraq, replete with hosannas, hugs and a red carpet, stood in sharp contrast to Dick Cheney hunkering in the Green Zone, the general direction toward which mortars and bombs were soon launched.  The writing on the wall seemed clear enough, as a Saudi daily newspaper opined, "Iranian firms will end up with lucrative reconstruction contracts which US companies like US vice-president Dick Cheney's old firm Halliburton once dreamed of winning."

But it may not be only Iranian firms winning contracts in Iraq.  Vladimir Putin only yesterday lent his imprimatur to Russia's effort and lobbied Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on behalf of Russian companies and especially Russian oil and gas companies like Lukoil.  Putin contacted Maliki only two days after Iraq's Oil Ministry announced an invitation to bid on contracts for the West Qurna oil field.  Given the close ties, both economic and political, between Russian and Iran, and Iran and Iraq, it is surely not hard to imagine Tehran adding its own weight to the lobbying effort now being directed at Baghdad, both for Iranian and Russian participation in the "restoration of the Iraqi economy."

Despite her initial reaction to the Lukoil contract, Russia's eventual debt forgiveness was a deft move, one designed to ingratiate rather than irritate Baghdad.  And the Bush administration is now facing the embarrassing prospect of providing the extremely expensive US military force to stanch the violence, while Iran, Russia and China all make the most of the hostility that that very military force has engendered across the region.

We are watching the grand vision for "benevolent global hegemony" unraveling, even in the limited theatre of Iraq, as those very powers that were supposed to quake in the face of American military aggression actually grow in power and influence as a direct result of that action, while the American economy wobbles and nations pitch the dollar, unimpressed by overwrought and unconstrained foreign policy and a fictionalized system of finance.

Yes, George Bush will surely be remembered.